The year 2026 is shaping up to be a landmark period for the United States economy and the financial markets. While many analysts spent 2024 and 2025 bracing for a downturn that never arrived, the emerging data points toward a rare environment: an economy that is growing steadily, supported by historic levels of fiscal stimulus, growing AI-driven productivity, and a central bank that has transitioned from an inhibitor to a primary driver of the bull market.
At the heart of the bullish thesis for 2026 is the American consumer. Nominal consumer spending, which traditionally accounts for approximately 60%-70% of the U.S. GDP, remains exceptionally
robust. Despite years of fluctuating prices, the aggregate household balance sheet is healthy, fueled by a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market that has kept unemployment near historic lows while maintaining wage growth.

TPG has raised $6.2 billion to deploy into the opaque corners of the credit market, stepping in where regulated banks can no longer tread. The fund focuses on “rescuing” private equity portfolio companies hitting maturity walls—borrowers deemed too risky for the traditional banking system. By utilizing bespoke structures that can mask leverage (sometimes keeping debt off-balance-sheet), TPG is aggregating risks that are invisible to the broader market. The resulting assets are impossible to accurately analyze or price in the secondary market.